POLICY · RESEARCH · DIALOGUE

The U.S. Withdrew. Afghanistan Still Matters.

Before the World Commits, Afghans Must

The U.S. withdrawal did not eliminate Afghanistan’s continuing impact on American security and strategic interests in the region. A stable partnership with Afghanistan could give the United States greater political access, regional insight and strategic options in Afghanistan and its wider region, where American influence is limited. It could also help contain terrorist threats, advance human rights – especially the rights of women and girls – promote regional security and stability, and support the sovereignty and independence of states across the region. But durable U.S. engagement requires what the previous U.S. – Afghan partnership never fully developed: a united and reliable Afghan counterpart.

Afghan Covenant Forum (ACF) makes the case for a step-by-step Covenant among consequential Afghan political forces. This Covenant would put Afghan commitment first, establish shared limits on power, protect equal rights and ensure that armed resistance is considered only as a last resort, when all peaceful avenues have been exhausted and no viable alternative remains. If armed resistance nevertheless becomes unavoidable, it must serve peace rather than become another regional proxy war.

The Cycle Only Afghans Can Break

Afghanistan is trapped in a vicious cycle: internal political fragmentation enables external competition, and external competition deepens that fragmentation. Only Afghans can break this cycle – through a firm political commitment to end war as a means of competing for power.

Internal political fragmentation

Competing foreign influence

Deeper fragmentation and conflict

Greater foreign dependence

Two Commitments, in the Right Order

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1. An Afghan National Covenant

Afghans commit to building a functioning Afghanistan – one that shares and limits power, protects equal rights and resolves political differences peacefully – and to establishing a genuine and reliable partnership with the United States.

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Afghan commitment comes first
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2. A Renewed Afghan–U.S. Partnership

With that Afghan commitment demonstrated, the United States commits to supporting a durable partnership that advances the interests of both countries.

Peaceful Political Action Must Come First

Peaceful political action must remain the first course of action. If peaceful avenues are exhausted and armed resistance nevertheless becomes unavoidable, it must remain politically accountable and bound by the commitments of the initial covenant. It must protect civilians and serve a negotiated peace. Above all, the covenant must prevent resistance from being followed by another war for power among resistance actors and their competing foreign patrons.

“We are not searching for a perfect Afghanistan. We are working toward an Afghanistan that works.”

Independent Analysis.
Practical Dialogue.

ACF advances evidence-based analysis and fosters constructive dialogue on Afghanistan’s political future.

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